Next week in Overwatch League marks the end of the Inaugural season. Who’s going home and who’ll need to train harder than ever? These are our predictions.
According to the OWL rules six squads end their run as soon as Stage 4 is resolved. The other six will qualify for the Season Playoffs and compete for even more cash, glory and prestige.
Two of the qualifying teams are the first in the Atlantic and Pacific divisions. The remaining four spots will be filled by teams regardless of their division, based on their merits. The first and foremost factor is the win-lose ratio. Should two teams tie, we are looking at their map differential – the team who won more maps for the same amount of games prevails. If teams are still tied, we are looking their head-to-head performance. If the odds are cruel and the teams are still equal, they will play a tiebreak game to settle the score.
Let’s look at the Standings and see what’s going on in the League.
Four teams have a negative win-loss ratio so far.
San Francisco Shock are out with 16-22, despite their vast improvement after Sinatraa, Moth and Architect joined the team. They are strong contenders for next year, though.
Next are the Dallas Fuel with 11-27. They share similar faith with the Shock – the inner turmoil and staff change mid-season seriously shook up their ranks and they couldn’t make it to the Playoffs despite their amazing performance in the current Brigitte meta and the increased morale.
Florida Mayhem stand at 7-31 and an overall lackluster performance. They did not manage to adapt the way SF and Dallas did.
Finally, we have the Shanghai Dragons with a 0-38. At this point, it is practically guaranteed that they will close the season without winning a single game. The dramatic roster changes including all main players and the coaching staff were not enough to get them back in the competition. Being the underdog has its benefits, though. The Dragons are enjoying vast fan support and extremely good faith by their fellow OWL teams.
Who is guaranteed to make it?
The answer is easy – the NYXL and the LA Valiant. They are comfortably leading the standings and their win-loss ratio is so high, that nobody is able to overthrow them this late in the tournament.
Let us take a look at the wild cards.
London Spitfire are out of the Playoffs only if they manage to lose all 8 maps that remain in the League. Since one game is against Florida, this is extremely unlikely to happen. They are practically in.
The LA Gladiators will also make the cut unless they drop both their games and some other factors align, which has extremely low probability.
Philadelphia Fusion need to win one game to go in – a thing they are more than capable of achieving.
Houston Outlaws are up in the air at this point. They need to beat both Philly and the Excelsior or rely on Philadelphia to drop both of their games, which is not very likely to happen. At this point, it is reasonable to assume that they won’t jump over the bar.
Seoul Dynasty is another one that relies on a miracle run including two victories and certain other teams winning or losing certain games, including a Dragons victory. We are not expecting to see the Tigers post Stage 4.
These, however, are rough numbers. This is the Overwatch League we’re talking about. Despite its short history, we’ve already seen incredible twists and turns and thinking that something is set in stone would be folly. The last week will be intense and things are far from decided.
Stay tuned for our ongoing reporting on everything Overwatch.